Morrisville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS62 KRAH 150636
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances in anomalously moist, west southwesterly
flow aloft will move across the Carolinas through tonight, during
which time a weak area of low pressure will track across
southeastern NC. A surface trough and weak backdoor cold front will
move across NC Friday and Friday night, with following dry and
seasonably warm high pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Friday...

*Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening will bring
an isolated flooding risk

Moist NELY low-level flow behind a weak back-door front and
reinforced by a developing wave of low pressure over southeastern
NC, will support the formation of stratus and/or fog across eastern
and central NC through daybreak. These low clouds will lift and
partially scatter with sfc heating during the mid to late morning.

There is little to no airmass change with this boundary. As a
result, lower rain chances today will allow for the warmest day of
the week. Highs will range from 85 to 90, with some lower 90s
possible across southern counties. Coupled with continued muggy
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat indices are expected to peak
in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the eastern half of the
forecast area.

Forcing mechanisms will be weaker than in recent days with diurnal
heating and resultant moderate to strong destabilization serving as
the primary trigger for convection. Some weak upper impulses
lingering across the region may provide additional lift. Given
elevated soil moisture and high stream/creeks levels, any localized
heavy rainfall could result in some minor flooding, especially in
urban areas.

The front will shift offshore tonight into early Saturday as the
weak sfc wave moves out to sea. Convection will diminish with the
loss of heating. Continued NELY low-level flow will favor the re-
development of stratus tonight into Saturday morning, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Lows 70 to 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

*Mostly dry with an isolated chance of afternoon storms.

As high pressure builds southwest into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday,
the lingering low pressure of the NC coast will begin to slowly
shift offshore Saturday afternoon. While most of Saturday is
expected to be dry as the low shifts offshore, a few isolated
showers and storms are expected to develop from the northeasterly
onshore flow associated with the surface low.  Models are generally
showing the best chance for storms to develop along and east of US 1
corridor, thus have higher PoPs in the east vs west for the
afternoon and early evening hours. Storm motion could be slow and
along with PW 2+ inches, WPC has areas along and east of I95 in a
marginal risk for isolated flash flooding. Overnight precip chances
diminish as surface high pressure settles in and upper level ridging
builds into the region. Temperatures Saturday will be near normal
with highs in the mid to upper 80s, however it will still feel muggy
as dew points will remain in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

* Relatively dry Sunday and Monday, with a return of diurnally
  driven convection by mid/late week.

* TC Erin may make its closest pass off the NC coast Wed/Thu, while
  most guidance continues to keep it offshore.

Upper level ridge will build into the region late weekend into early
next week resulting in drier conditions. Sunday is expected to be
the driest day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday and
Tuesday expect a few diurnal afternoon  showers and storms develop,
thus have kept 15-20% PoPs for each afternoon. As the ridge builds
east through the week, it will help keep TC Erin offshore. Wednesday
and Thursday TC Erin is expected to be closest to NC but curve north
offshore. Afternoon showers and storm chances increase Wed/Thurs as
weak a frontal boundary moves across NC. Temperatures during the
work week will range  from highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

The earlier area of showers and storms that moved through KRDU and
KRWI will continue weaken and should dissipate before reaching KFAY.

Moist NELY low-level flow behind a weak back-door front and
reinforced by a developing wave of low pressure over southeastern
NC, will support the formation of stratus and/or fog across eastern
and central NC through daybreak. IFR to LIFR ceilings and
visibilities are likely at FAY/RWI/RDU, with lesser chances at
INT/GSO.

These sub-VFR restrictions should lift to VFR by mid to late morning
with daytime heating. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible this afternoon and early evening across much of the area.

Outlook: Continued NELY low-level flow will favor the re-development
of IFR-MVFR ceilings Friday night-early Sat. Lower coverage of
diurnally driven showers and storms over the weekend and into next
week. Morning fog and/or low stratus will remain possible each day.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL